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Trump or Biden? Cryptocurrency Prediction Market for the US 2020 Election

By October 13, 2020 No Comments

The whole world seems to be watching the US 2020 election and wondering who will be elected president: Trump or Biden. The race sways between the two main candidates and seems different each week.

News, such as 500 National Security experts endorsing Joe Biden for President, sway the odds and such news has a discernible, miserable effect.

What the Cryptocurrency Prediction Markets are Saying

There are several platforms on the crypto prediction market which are allowing users to follow and even bet cryptocurrencies on the outcome of the election.

For example, on February 6, 2020, the crypto trading platform FTX Exchange allowed customers to start making predictions through a futures contract.

As long as you do not live in the USA, FTX is letting traders purchase short and long positions on Donald Trump being elected in November.

The exchange allowed this by launching a token called TRUMP.

Trump expires to $1 if Donald Trump wins the 2020 US presidential general election, and $0 otherwise.

At the time of the article above, each token was trading for $0.62.

This meant that the odds are in favor (62% chance) of Trump being reelected, according to FTX traders at that time.

However, at the times of this article, the price of each TRUMP token had fallen to $0.44 cents per token. This represents a slide to 44% of TRUMP winning.

Other exchanges have different methods of allowing people to express their sentiment.

One exchange even allowed people to put money on the outcome of other presidential hopefuls taking the seat, such as Harris or Romney.

It’s a hot topic with even large news outlets such as The Washington Post weighing in.

One of the oldest crypto prediction markets, Augur, has shown people placing so many bets that the current volume is over $65,000.

The site was correct in 2019 when people predicted with 95% confidence that Donald Trump would win the nomination of the republican party for reelection as president.

Now the site is showing a 55% confidence that Donald Trump will also be re-elected for a second term as President of the United States, or, as the Augur question puts it:

“Will Donald J. Trump be elected AND inaugurated as President of the United States for the 2021-2025 presidential term?”

A Grain of Salt When Reading the Cryptocurrency Prediction Market

It must be said that the crypto prediction markets and their sentiment should be taken with a grain of salt. The sentiments and predictions can be seen across media outlets, but most especially on crypto and Bitcoin gambling sites.

The predictions are based on the money-backed votes of cryptocurrency holders, after all. And a recent Fortune poll shows that the typical cryptocurrency holder is not typical of the average US voter.

According to the Fortune article, 70% of cryptocurrency holders are male. They are white, middle-aged, and typically hold a Bachelor’s degree or higher.

Therefore, even though the crypto prediction markets say one thing, the outcome could be quite different. After all, the average crypto holder who might be using Augur or another crypto site to place their bet is not the same as the average US voter. The accuracy of such sites is predictably thrown in doubt.

Using A Cryptocurrency Prediction Market

If these markets and platforms fascinate you, and you want to participate, then it’s not too difficult to do so.

  • Find a reputable prediction site you feel comfortable using
  • Deposit the amount of cryptocurrency you want to use into your new account
  • Place bets
  • Withdraw winnings or leftover amounts.

The benefit of using cryptocurrencies is their speed and low transaction fees.

In some cases, you can also use cryptocurrencies to gain a level of anonymity, though this is highly depending on the type of cryptocurrency as well as the prediction site you sign up with.

Keep in mind some countries do not allow betting. The U.S. is a country where the laws vary by state and even city as well, so do your research to find the laws in your particular place of residence.

Overall, the 2020 US election will be one remembered by the history books. Perhaps a cryptocurrency prediction site will get it right, but because the bettors do not represent the average voter — it all could come down to nothing but luck.

 

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